New study from population and development review finds flaws in mortality projections

(Population Council) A new study by Population Council demographer John Bongaarts has found that mortality projections from most low-mortality countries are more pessimistic than they should be. Existing projections fail to recognize that fewer people smoke today than used to. As a result, there will be a future decline in smoking-related mortality. This suggests that with more people living longer, pension and health care costs in coming decades will likely be higher than previously estimated.