On Boeing, We Wonder: Is The Global Commercial Aviation Upcycle Nearing Its End?

All in all, in our view, concerns around the commercial aviation upcycle having run its ground are not on strong footing. We see no convincing data on new airplane orders and order cancellation rates that indicate that demand for new airplanes is waning. Current long term forecasts from Boeing also show that about 36,000 new airplanes will likely be delivered to airlines worldwide in the next 20 years, compared to about 19,000 airplanes which were delivered to airlines in the last 20 years.