A New 40% Rule for Grimmer Times

The 40% rule is a time-tried tactic employed by pundits. If you say there is a 40% chance of something improbable happening and it does, you look great. And if it doesn't, you never said the odds favored it. But in the Covid-19 era, the 40% number economists are citing is how much they expect gross domestic product to contract, at an annual rate, in the second quarter.