One of the most reliable recession indicators may no longer be reliable

Wikimedia Economists have long sought to find the magical indicators that foretell an economic recession. After crunching through all the data, some have argued that there two indicators that stand above the rest: the yield curve and a broad index of equity prices. And out of those two, the former has historically been more reliable than the latter. Or as many analysts have noted: "There has never been a recession without the yield curve first inverting." But now analysts at Societe Generale a...